Forecasting in Marketing: Methods, Types of Data, and Future Research

Informações

Código: MKT298
Divisão: MKT - Marketing
Tema de Interesse: Tema 06 - Estratégia e Desempenho em Marketing e Vendas

Autores

Carla Freitas Silveira Netto (Prog de Pós-Grad em Admin/Esc de Admin – PPGA/EA/UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul) carla.netto@gmail.com

Resumo

Forecasts are fundamental to plan and deliver products and services. Despite such relevance, marketers have difficulty to choose which forecast method is the best for their organizations. One possible explanation for this is that marketing literature focuses on the explanation of which variables impact on marketing responses rather than the accuracy of predictions of those responses. Consequently, the literature is not clear about forecasting methods’ classifications, approaches, complexity, requirements, and efficiency. This theoretical paper tries to improve this scenario, reviewing the state of the art about forecasting in marketing. More specifically, we focus on: different classifications and approaches used to study marketing responses, especially the ones based on statistics/mathematics and computer-intensive methods; the types of data used; and suggestions of future research aimed at improving forecasting marketing response. Besides simpler, easier to implement models, further research is necessary to develop forecasting techniques that give evidence of accuracy, uses aggregate or anonymized data, or that incorporates publicly available data. Of foremost importance are datasets that manufacturers of durable goods can use in models for their businesses, the exploration of location data, and the combination of different models and datasets.

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